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It is common practice among young astrophysicists these days to invest
research time conservatively in mainstream ideas that have already been
explored extensively in the literature. This tendency is driven by peer
pressure and job market prospects, and is occasionally encouraged by
senior researchers. Although the same phenomenon existed in past decades,
it is alarmingly more prevalent today because a growing fraction of
observational and theoretical projects are pursued in large groups with
rigid research agendas. In addition, the emergence of a "standard model"
in cosmology (albeit with unknown dark components) offers secure "bonds"
for a safe investment of research time. In this short essay, which
summarizes a banquet lecture at a recent conference, I give examples for
both safe and risky topics in astrophysics (which I split into categories
of "bonds," "stocks," and "venture capital"), and argue that young
researchers should always allocate a small fraction of their academic
portfolio to innovative projects with risky but potentially highly
profitable returns. In parallel, selection and promotion committees must
find new strategies for rewarding candidates with creative thinking.
*For a written version of this lecture, see
http://arxiv.org/abs/1008.1586
(also published in Nature, https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/n.pdf)
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